It's a Numbers Game
Pitchers and catcher report in a few days. During the bitter days of February in Northern Indiana, that phrase is often the only thing that inspires hope that warmer weather will soon be making it's way into our lives. It is also starts to get the juices flowing a bit for the local baseball junkies. We have been pent up all winter working with our own travel teams and discussing where our own kids will fit into their high school programs. As coaches we discuss how we think our kids will impact their programs and how those respective programs stack up against others in the area. But not long after MLB pitchers and catcher report, all of the long winter talks and conversations about baseball get to be played out on the fields. There is no more discussion about who is going to make what team or how they'll do, we start to see all of those things answered on the field.
Within those long winter conversations among travel ball coaches and organizations, we are talking about and projecting where some of these kids will end up if they decide they want to play baseball beyond high school. This is the area that can be frustrating and confusing for so many of us parents. During the offseason, starting in August, parents are often bombarded with information about multiple different showcase events and recruiting pitches from different organizations. It gets to the point where you feel like you have to be doing something or you're son or daughter will get passed by and not get noticed. In our area, you can start to feel like your son or daughter needs to play for a higher profile organization in order to get noticed or to play at a higher level beyond high school. It gets pretty unnerving and overwhelming. So I wanted to share what I believe are some of the important things to remember and think about when it comes to your kids and playing baseball at the next level.
Find Out What They Want to Do
Parents should have an open and honest conversation with their kids about what there goals are for playing baseball, or any other sport, in and beyond high school. For the freshmen and sophomores, the first goal is and should be to make the varsity baseball team at their high school. After that, the conversation should turn to asking them what kind of school do they WANT to go to. Do they want to go to a large school with lots of activities and huge lecture halls? Would they be willing to go to a smaller school? Do they want to stay close to home, or would they prefer to go further away? After there is some clarification and direction from those conversations, then the question needs to shift to, do they love the game enough to adjust their goals, if necessary, to keep playing in college? For the overwhelming majority of kids in our area, playing baseball at a large college is not a realistic option. Those conversations can help parents save a ton of time and money.
Are They Putting in the Work?
By the time most kids that have played high level travel baseball enter high school, the kid and parents should have a really good idea of where they fit in terms of their ability and long-term, college potential. However, ability will only get you so far, and things can change drastically while in high school. High school years should be a good indication of how serious your kid is about playing sports and pursuing the next level. At the high school age, the parent cannot be the one telling their kid to practice or workout. While the kid may not look forward to doing those things, they have to want to do those things on their own, and they shouldn't just be doing those things during structured practices and organized school activities. The kid has to start looking at their peers and deciding that they're not going to be outworked by them. The kid has to start pushing themselves to be better than others around them. When they're young, a lot of that comes from us as parents or natural ability, but if they don't have that drive within them as a teenager, they will flounder if they decide to try and play a sport at the college level. They will quickly realize they are in over their head, that they can't handle the work it takes to try and get ahead of their teammates, they'll rarely see the playing field, and likely will want to transfer and give up the sport after their freshman year. At that point as a parent you hope that they are at a school they enjoy that isn't private because you'll be paying a lot of money for tuition at a school they're not playing baseball for or helping them transfer into another school that is cheaper.
Make Everyone Aware of the Realities
So your kid wants to be a college athlete. That is pretty exciting, and it plays into the ego of every sports loving parent out there. Now comes the most difficult part for some parents and kids to accept, the level they are going to be able to play at on the next level. I am going to focus strictly on baseball with my numbers here.
Prep Baseball Report does a good job of trying to accurately and objectively assess kids based off of showcase events and the few times they may see a kid in competition. They will then rank the kids nationally and within their state according to graduation year. I went through and looked at the graduating classes from 2012-2021, the past 10 years, to see how many kids from our South Bend area have signed to play Division 1 baseball. To provide some context, I looked at kids as far east as Northridge, as far south as Plymouth, as far west as Michigan City, and as far north as St. Joseph, MI. For the purpose of being transparent, I did not include kids who went to a junior college because I did not want to track down and see if they eventually played Division 1 or not. In the past 10 years, 38 kids from our area have signed to play Division 1 baseball out of high school. 18 pitchers and 20 hitters. I don't have extensive information on how all of those kids did in college at that level, but I do know that some of those kids rarely played or quit within a year or two. In that vast expanse of territory, on average 3.8 kids will be given the opportunity to play Division 1 baseball from our area each year. Your kid might be good, but is he putting in the work to be that much better than his peers? Plus, we haven't even talked about the competition they will face once they arrive on campus. Long odds for sure that your kid will be afforded the opportunity to play Division 1 baseball coming from the South Bend area.
On top of that, even if your kid is one of the best players in the area they may not be a Division 1 player. If you've been around any sport long enough, you know that Division 1 players just "look" different. Everything about them from their size, athleticism, and natural ability is just different. So if your kid doesn't check all of these boxes you should probably have that realistic conversation with them: over six foot tall, over 180 pounds, can throw a ball 88+ MPH off the mound, and hit soft toss over 90 MPH. Those are typically the bottom line numbers just to get you in the discussion.
How Does My Kid Get Noticed?
Ok, so most of us aren't raising a Division 1 athlete. There is a reason why those kids are so special and rare. So getting your son or daughter noticed and available to programs outside of the Division 1 level is where people can take a wide variety of paths. I'm going to describe the best ways that I have read and heard from college coaches and talent evaluators, and try to give my own opinions on such throughout.
1. Get Verified Numbers
While most people think that showcase events and scouting services are a waste of time and money, numbers don't lie. College coaches aren't out sitting at baseball fields at random locations. College baseball programs have limited resources and budgets, so they are going to work smarter and more efficiently than ever. The best way for them to do that is to utilize the technology and recruiting services that are available to them. College coaches trust these places to give them accurate information, and they use that information to separate kids without even seeing them play. These numbers might not tell them how a kid does in a game, but it gives them a darn good idea if you have the bat speed to catch up to an 90 MPH fastball. It lets them know if you can go into the hole and throw a kid out or go first to third on a base hit to left center field. It lets them know if you have the ability to prevent a runner from trying to tag up on a fly ball. They'll be able to see if you can or cannot throw out runners trying to steal their level. There is a reason why plenty of kids have great high school or college careers, but don't have the same success as they try to play at the next levels. College coaches don't get paid to be wrong or take high risks, so without verified numbers and a recruiting profile, colleges likely won't even give you a second look.
2. Spend Your Money Wisely
Ok, so now that you want to get some verified numbers for your kids, you start to look at organizations like PBR and Perfect Game. Quickly you notice that these things are not cheap. However, some kids are attending multiple events each year, and those kids are ranked higher. Do I need to start sending my kid to more events in order for them to get ranked higher? The simple answer is NO. The numbers do not lie. What a lot of people fail to understand is that the top end guys often get invited to these events and do not have to pay to participate. If PBR or Perfect Game can consistently get the highest profile kids in the state or region to attend events, it will draw more traffic to their sites and services. These are also kids that are looking to get more numbers and video out there for high level Division 1 schools and major league scouts.
My advise is to take your kid to one event a year. A one year interval is a good amount of time for coaches to evaluate growth and long term potential. If you're spending money of these events left and right, not only are you going broke, but colleges are pretty much seeing the same kid and numbers. What is the purpose of sending your kid to multiple events if they are the same weight and have about the same arm and hitting velocity as they did a few months prior?
Also, make sure you're going to a reputable organization. I am constantly bombarded with emails and invites to take my son to showcases and events near and far. It sounds really exciting to think that somebody wants to see my son play in Florida or North Carolina; however, make sure you understand if you're getting the same email as 8,000 other parents, and make sure you understand what you're getting when you give them your credit card information. Some events talk about all of the college coaches that are going to be attending, which is great. However, if there are 25 Division 1 schools attending, but your son doesn't have the ability to play at that level, you are just adding to their future recruiting budgets with your donation. Also, look at the schools attending and ask your kid if they see themselves wanting to play for any of those smaller schools they have never heard of that are eight hours away from home. Chances are you can find a school much closer to home at the same level. Is any of the information from that event going to be shared anywhere, or is it just for those coaches and schools that attended?
3. Have a Game Plan
Without top end verified numbers and a recruiting profile, most schools won't be pursuing you. Yeah, your kid might be getting mail from some schools about attending a camp, but those are the same form letters and mailers that go out to 5,000 other families that attended an event or put their name on some listing. Recruiting and finding the right school is all about how proactive you are as a family in understanding your kid's abilities, their desires, and their needs to be successful and enjoy college. You must pursue those schools yourself and get on their radar. You cannot just sit around and see what happens in the world of baseball recruiting.
Use the numbers and profiles of kids from previous years on PBR and Perfect Game to see what types of schools those kids committed to. If you're chasing down the Division 2 level, but your numbers and physical profile don't match up with the kids that are signing at those schools, you're wasting your time and will likely be shutout. Use your kids numbers to project where they could possibly play and then start having those conversations with your kid if that interests them. If their numbers don't match with the schools they want to attend, you can save a lot of time and money. There is a reason why a number of kids ranked in the top 100 of their high school class choose not to play college baseball. However, if your kid is interested in playing at a lower level and for those schools, it allows you to start focusing your contacts. Those are the schools you should be calling and emailing about visits and camps. It will make the process much more clear for the school and the family. If a school is really interested in you, they will invite you to some of their private camps.
Also, use a recruiting service to make access to colleges much easier. Most of the top travel organizations have recruiting services that kids and families can use to help organize and facilitate the sharing of this information. Organizations often get discounted rates that help offset the cost if you were going to do this yourself. These recruiting services allow you to exchange academic and athletic information easily with college coaches across the country. Colleges can access videos you have of them on the site. If your travel organization doesn't have these services for high school aged kids, what are you paying for?
Use this link to get a better idea where your kid projects at the next level based off their size and performance.
Myths and Frustrations
1. Showcase Organizations and Events Are a Money Grab
I have heard a lot of people say that they don't like the recruiting services like PBR or Perfect Game because they are just a money grab and they don't feel like the rankings are fair or accurate. I respect those opinions, but just like college coaches, they are not there watching these kids play multiple games. There is only so much they can evaluate in a few hours with 60 plus kids. They are basing these rankings primarily off of numbers and how they can project a kid based off their size and movements. Anybody who has looked at these rankings has seen one kid they know ranked much higher than another kid they know is actually a better ballplayer at the time, but there are many more factors that go into it than that, which I'll explore as I go on. Arm talent and pitchers are always evaluated much higher than other metrics. It doesn't matter how good of an actual pitcher a kid is, you cannot teach 89 MPH, but you can work on mechanics, pitches, and the mental approach. However, rankings aren't the entire story. If you look at PBR rankings, you'll be sure to see kids that are ranked much higher than some other Division 1 signees that are going to a Division 2 or NAIA school. There could be a wide variety of reasons for that including, costs and academic money awarded, to the basic idea of a kid wanting a realistic opportunity to actually play in college. Division 1 schools will take up 40 kids. They aren't giving them scholarships anyways, so while you may be signing to play at a Division 1 school, you could really be signing up to not make the traveling squad but have to still go to every workout while never having a chance of playing. It might feed the ego of the player and parent to say they went D1, but is it worth it if you never play?
2. I Need to Take My Son to a Higher Profile Organization to Get More College Opportunities
The first thing I would say to that is, will playing for a higher profile organization somehow make them throw harder, run faster, and put on more strength? Again, it is all about the numbers at the next level. It doesn't matter what travel organization you play for, if you can't match up to the measurables at the next level you won't get more opportunities than you would playing where you already are. Now, it might help if your son is around an entire team of really talented kids that will push them to get working and get better. They might see a bump in their numbers because they are now putting in the work on their own to get bigger, faster, and stronger, because they don't want to get left in the dust of their own team. I am a big believer that playing for a higher profile organization does not raise the bar for where a kid can go to and play in college. I stand firmly behind my position that where a kid plays in the summer has nothing to do with the organization itself. There are only a couple premier organizations worth traveling hours for that will boost your profile in Indiana. If you're good enough to make those teams, you're already good enough to play baseball at a high level beyond high school.
In Indiana, the premier travel baseball organizations are the Indiana Bulls and Midwest Evoshield Canes. There is little debate about this. However, the reason the Bulls and Canes are so dominant is because they have already selected the cream of the crop. They use the same numbers that college coaches sort through to select the kids on their roster. In exchange, college coaches understand that if a kid is on that roster they are likely of a certain caliber. Therefore, you don't see many Division 3 or NAIA schools watching their events. However, outside of the Bulls Black team and the Canes, the talent starts to get spread out pretty evenly throughout a number of other organizations in Indiana. Indiana might have 50-60 kids sign to play Division 1 each year, so assuming that those two programs have 25-30 of those kids, it leaves everyone else with talent that is generally below the Division 1 level. In the high school levels, there isn't a great deal of difference between the second or third level teams in some higher profile organizations than the premier local teams. The biggest difference is likely the depth of arms they can roll out over 3-4 days, but playing on the "B" team for the Bulls or with the Nitro isn't that much of a difference than playing for a really strong local organization. Organizations like the Nitro and others similar to them may have a couple potential Division 1 kids, but they also have plenty of Division 2 and NAIA kids on their rosters as well. So if you're numbers indicate that you're a Division 2/NAIA type kid, what is the point of going to a different organization in high school if you're playing with the same type of players on your local team? The same college coaches that might take interest in your games with your current local team are likely to be watching the games of the teams from Indianapolis. If your local team has a Division 1 player on it, you're just as likely to be seen by those coaches as you are playing for a "high profile" team out of Indianapolis where Division 1 coaches will come to watch the one high level prospect on that team play.
3. I Need to Take My Son to a Team That Does More Exposure Events
Unless your son is playing for the Bulls Black or Midwest Canes, no high level college coaches are coming to watch your specific team play in Indiana. College coaches have limited time and resources, so they are going to go and watch certain baseball events at certain locations where they can see a lot of teams all at once. Rarely do they stick around to watch games on Sundays when there are only a few teams left standing. They are there on Thursdays and Fridays when all the teams are playing. They will be circulating around and may happen to catch a few things during one of your games, but they aren't going to sit and watch an entire game when there are three more going on around you. Yeah, the more events your team plays in like that it will slightly increase your odds of possibly being seen or noticed by a college coach, but again, will it be the right coach at the right level that your son is capable of playing? The best chances you have of a college coach coming to specifically watch you or your team play is if you have built a good relationship with a college coach or program, have verified numbers, and they want to watch you play in a game before they decide if they want to extend you an offer. If your team plays in Pastime, PBR, or Perfect Game events, it won't matter if coaches are there or not. The kids that have good exit velocity at the plate or on the mound will be promoted through Twitter. Coaches don't have to see you with their own eyes with social media. If you're not posting numbers strong enough to get mentioned on social media, well, you're not a high level prospect.
4. My Son Needs to Be Playing a Certain Position/My Son Needs to Be Playing Every Inning
If you're envisioning your son as a Division 1 or Division 2 athlete, yeah he probably does need to be playing a certain position: Pitcher, Catcher, Short Stop, Center Field, or Right Field. I'm not saying the other positions aren't important, but that is where the money goes in college. If you can play Short Stop in high school, you can play second and third base. If you're in left field in high school, it is probably because you have the weakest arm of the bunch and the least amount of range. I'm not disrespecting the corner infield guys, but those are the guys who are on a college team typically to do damage with the bat, so you better do something special at the plate. College coaches might be interested in how you play the field at the high school level, but they will notice your bat first. It doesn't matter if you don't play every inning. College coaches know how high school travel baseball works, and they appreciate organizations that allow kids to play multiple spots or feature multiple kids during a game. If you are on a team where your son is playing every inning, chances are you are playing at an elite level or you are playing on a team that doesn't have much depth and isn't that good. Plus, if they don't like sitting a couple innings while they are in high school travel ball, how are they going to handle sitting the majority of their first two seasons in college?
5. Northern Indiana Guys Don't Get Any Respect
Yep, and the reason for that goes back to my realities section. Over the last 10 years, there have been 18 Division 1 pitchers and 20 Division 1 hitters from our area. Quite simply, our kids don't see high level competition much at all during their high school seasons, so scouting agencies don't always trust what kids from our area can do. As a pitcher, you can throw 82-84 in our area and be a very good high school pitcher. That doesn't always equate to success in college when you're playing against kids who have been recruited from all over the country to play at your level. Same thing for hitters. A high level college hitter in our area should feast off local high school pitching because it isn't that good compared to other areas. This is why the rankings tend to favor guys from central and southern Indiana, even if some kids in our are have better numbers. Just because a kid from our area has an exit velocity off the bat in batting practice, it doesn't mean they have consistently seen and hit against top level pitching. On the flip side, pitchers aren't facing the best hitting, so 86 MPH in Northern Indiana probably looks a lot better on the field in the high school season than it does against the bigger schools down in Central and Southern Indiana. Quite simply, it is an uphill climb based off of geography and competition for our kids. Don't get fooled into believing that because your kid is one of the best in our area that he's a Division 1 type player.
6. So Based Off That, Shouldn't I Take My Kid and Go Play in Indy
Why? Yes, in the high school season you're going to see better competition in the Indianapolis area, but how much better competition are you going to see in the summer on a team out of Indy than if you played for a local travel organization? Just because you play for a travel organization based out of Indianapolis, it doesn't mean you won't play against the same amount of inferior teams that you would if you played for your local organization. Yeah, you might beat them by a few more runs because your Indianapolis team might have a little more depth in the lineup, but you're still playing the same type of teams. The advantage that those families and teams have is that they don't have to travel to play in the bigger events because everyone will go to Grand Park. However, if you decide to play for one of those you're still making the same trip every week you would have to if you were playing for your local travel organization anyways. While those families and kids are sleeping in their own beds, you're shelling out more money for gas, hotels, or crashing houses of families and friends. If nothing else, that amount of constant travel burns kids out and can sour them towards baseball at the younger ages.
However, I will make this argument. If your son is serious about wanting to play in college but is unsure about what level or if they have what it takes, take them down there before their senior season to play for a high level organization. Put them around 16 to 18 kids with high ability and the drive to play in college and see how they like that environment of playing with people other than their friends. If they are overwhelmed and uncomfortable, maybe college baseball isn't the best option for them, but if they thrive on the competition within the team they can likely use that as a platform towards their future in college.
In Summary
Know what you're after and where your kid stands. Playing college baseball puts you in direct competition for roster spots with kids from across the country. Yeah, your kid is probably a really good ballplayer in our area, but our area is not a baseball hotbed and doesn't get much respect. Open your eyes and watch the best players on other teams when you watch your own kids play. We all have our own decisions to make when it comes to deciding what do for our kids, but it is important to know how to spend your time and money the best.
I'm sure we all know kids/families that are constantly changing teams. What are they chasing? If they can't find the right personality or culture fit, it's probably not a issue with those teams. If they are seeking out a better organization that has a higher profile and wins more games, keep an eye out on the records of those teams and where they play. As the kids get older, it is more difficult to win, so you won't see a big difference in records between most good teams across the state.
Don't get roped in by people telling you that because their son now plays for a certain organization they have more and bigger colleges interested in their son. Take a step back and see where they end up signing to go to actually play in college, and also look at their raw numbers. Probably a good chance their numbers aren't that special and they're just spending a lot more time and money than you are for the same result in the long run.
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